Timing your shipments between August and January exposes your supply chain to peak season volatility. During this period, carriers often apply a General Rate Increase (GRI) averaging 4–6%, and a sudden spike in blank sailings can leave your cargo stranded at the port.

This guide explains the key events to plan around, from the pre-holiday inventory rush to factory shutdowns during Chinese New Year that can cause delays of up to three weeks. We’ll cover how to anticipate capacity issues and why booking your freight at least four weeks in advance is critical for navigating the shipping peak season.

The Shipping Calendar: High vs. Low Season

The shipping calendar is split into a high season, running roughly from July to January, driven by holiday demand that causes delays and higher costs, and a low season, like early spring, which offers more capacity and better rates. Planning around these cycles is crucial for managing budgets and on-time deliveries.

Defining High Season: The Annual Demand Surge

The primary high shipping season runs from October through December, but its effects often extend into January to handle post-holiday returns. This period is driven by a series of major retail events that create a massive increase in consumer demand. It starts with the Back-to-School season in July and August, then intensifies with holiday shopping for Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

Different logistics modes experience the surge at different times. Ocean freight, for example, has an earlier high season from July to October as companies import goods to stock their warehouses for the upcoming holiday rush. During the Q4 peak, daily shipment volumes can increase by 50–100% compared to the yearly average. On critical days like Cyber Monday, parcel volumes can surge by as much as 200%, placing extreme pressure on carrier networks.

Low Season: Strategic Planning and Cost Savings

The low season occurs during off-peak months when consumer demand falls, typically in the lull after January and through the early spring. This period is defined by greater carrier capacity, reduced port congestion, and more competitive shipping rates. With fewer parcels clogging the system, transit times are often more reliable and predictable.

Businesses can use the low season to their advantage. It presents an ideal opportunity to ship non-urgent inventory and stock up on essential supplies at a lower cost. By planning inventory intake during these quieter months, companies can achieve significant freight savings and avoid the capacity constraints and expensive surcharges that are common during the high season.

The “Golden Week” & Chinese New Year shutdowns

Golden Week in October and Chinese New Year in late January/February are China’s two largest holidays, causing factory shutdowns of one to four weeks. These periods create major shipping rushes, rate spikes, and capacity cuts, requiring booking at least 3–4 weeks in advance to avoid significant delays.

Golden Week: The October Shipping Rush

Golden Week is a national holiday starting on October 1, during which most factories in China shut down for seven to eight consecutive days. To get goods out before this pause, companies create a major shipping surge that begins two to three weeks beforehand. To secure vessel space and avoid rolled cargo, you should book freight at least three to four weeks in advance. During this period, ocean carriers often implement “blank sailings,” cancelling scheduled voyages to manage capacity. This can reduce available space by 14-17% on major trade lanes from Asia to Europe and North America. Plan for local trucking costs to increase by 10-15% and potential shipping delays of three to seven days.

Chinese New Year: The Multi-Week Production Halt

The Chinese New Year (CNY) shutdown has a longer and more severe impact on supply chains than Golden Week. While the official public holiday lasts for about seven days, the industrial shutdown is far more extensive. Factories often close for two to four weeks, as many workers travel long distances to their hometowns and return slowly. Production typically halts in mid-January, creating a massive export rush. In the weeks leading up to CNY, intense demand for limited space can cause freight rates for ocean, air, and trucking to double or even triple. The resulting port congestion and equipment shortages can take weeks to clear after the holiday, creating a ripple effect of delays across the global logistics network.

General Rate Increases (GRI) explained

A General Rate Increase (GRI) is an adjustment to base freight rates, typically 4–6%, announced by carriers in Q4 to take effect the next year. Distinct from fuel surcharges, GRIs are regulated in the US by the FMC, which requires a 30-day notice for ocean freight.

What a GRI Is and When It Occurs

A General Rate Increase (GRI) is an adjustment carriers apply to base freight rates, and it is separate from indexed fuel surcharges. Carriers often announce GRIs between October and November, planning for implementation at the start of the following year.

These increases frequently occur during peak shipping season, especially on high-demand import routes from the Far East. The primary cost drivers behind a GRI include fuel prices, port and terminal charges, labor contracts, and equipment maintenance.

How GRIs Are Applied and Regulated

The average GRI is 4–6%, but the actual impact can vary. Certain Less-than-Truckload (LTL) lanes might experience rate changes anywhere from 3% to 12%.

For Full Container Load (FCL) shipments, carriers like Hapag-Lloyd apply a flat USD fee per 20′ or 40′ container. For Less-than-Container Load (LCL) shipments, the GRI is applied per cubic meter or by weight unit.

In the United States, the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) requires ocean carriers to file any GRI at least 30 days before it becomes effective. This regulation provides shippers with advance notice of rate changes.

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Predicting “Blank Sailings”

Predicting blank sailings involves monitoring carrier announcements, port congestion, and capacity metrics. Shippers use transportation management systems (TMS) and real-time data on TEU volumes and schedule reliability to forecast cancellations, helping them build necessary shipping buffers.

Why Carriers Announce Blank Sailings

Carriers announce blank sailings primarily as a strategic tool to manage excess vessel capacity and stabilize freight rates. By canceling scheduled voyages, shipping lines align available ship space with fluctuating market demand, especially on critical east-west trade routes. This practice prevents an oversupply of capacity from driving down prices.

The scale of these adjustments can be dramatic. For example, cancelled capacity on Trans-Pacific routes has surged by 600% in a four-week window, jumping from 60,000 to over 367,000 TEUs as carriers react to market shifts. Shipping alliances often coordinate these cancellations to manage their collective network capacity without decommissioning vessels permanently.

Metrics and Tools for Forecasting

Shippers can anticipate cancellations by monitoring key performance indicators. Schedule reliability projections are a primary metric; a dip toward 90% often precedes widespread blank sailings. Another critical signal is port congestion. When dwell times at major hubs like Los Angeles and Long Beach increase to 7–10 days, it signals operational bottlenecks that frequently lead to canceled port calls or entire voyages.

To get this data, shippers rely on transportation management systems (TMS) and data APIs that provide real-time alerts. These tools track schedule changes, rolled cargo incidents, and cancelled TEU volumes on specific trade lanes. Analyzing these trends helps supply chain managers forecast capacity reductions and proactively adjust their logistics plans by securing alternative routes or building safety stock.

Booking 4 Weeks in Advance

Booking ocean freight four weeks in advance is a cautious strategy for peak seasons that prioritizes schedule reliability. While minimum booking times are often 14-21 days, this extended window helps secure vessel space, avoid rollovers, and manage paperwork, aligning with expert advice for capacity-constrained shipments.

The 4-Week Rule: Securing Space and Avoiding Risk

Booking four weeks ahead is a proactive strategy to guarantee schedule reliability and avoid premium surcharges or cargo rollovers during peak season. This practice exceeds the minimum B2B ocean freight requirements, which often specify only 14 to 21 days’ notice before the ship date. The extended timeframe provides a critical buffer, allowing shippers to complete all necessary paperwork and export formalities without risking last-minute delays.

Minimum vs. Recommended Booking Times

General shipping guides typically suggest booking at least two weeks in advance as a standard. For retail B2B freight, major companies like URBN require vendors to complete bookings at least 14 days before shipping, with a recommendation of 21 days. But for shipments on congested routes or with special handling, like personal effects, specialist shippers explicitly recommend a 4 to 6 week booking window to secure vessel space.

Final Thoughts

Shipping during the peak season from August to January is a strategic challenge. This window brings predictable cost hikes from General Rate Increases and service disruptions from blank sailings. The goal isn’t always to avoid these months, but to plan for them. By anticipating these market dynamics, you can protect your budget from surprise fees and your timeline from unexpected delays.

The key is to shift from a reactive to a proactive shipping strategy. Instead of just responding to delays, use data to anticipate them. Monitoring carrier schedules and port congestion gives you the foresight to act early. Booking your shipments at least four weeks in advance provides a necessary buffer against tight capacity. This approach transforms seasonality from an annual headache into a manageable part of your logistics cycle.

Frequently Asked Questions